The below is an excerpt from a recent edition of Bitcoin Magazine Pro, Bitcoin Magazine’s premium markets newsletter. To be among the first to receive these insights and other on-chain bitcoin market analysis straight to your inbox, subscribe now.
On July 27, 2022, the Federal Reserve went through with another 75-bp rate hike. This was broadly expected going into the meeting, with the market assigning a 76.3% probability of a 75-bp hike one hour prior to the meeting, with a (previously) 23.7% chance of a 100-bp (1.0%) rate hike taking place. After the meeting and press conference, the latest market data puts the most favorable odds on 100 bps of hiking left to do by the end of the year, across three more FOMC meetings.
Chicago Mercantile Exchange FedWatch Tool
Going into the meeting today, assets such as equities and bitcoin were moving up in tandem, as the expectation of a dovish and neutral Fed relative to prior meetings increased investors’ appetite for risk.
Watch Out For Bear Market Rallies,” we covered the dynamics of bear market rallies in both equity markets and in bitcoin to provide subscribers with historical context.
For readers looking for more on the state of the markets and the global economic outlook, our upcoming July Monthly Report will go into much more extensive detail on the interplay of geopolitics, monetary policy and financial markets. The report will be released to paying subscribers this following Monday.