I wrote a prediction piece last year, wherein I spoke to several nocoiner luminaries to get their predictions for 2021. I also gave my own predictions. Were we right? Did any of our predictions hold true?
Well, yes, we were spot on. All our predictions were 100% correct!
We predicted 2021 would be a year of comedy gold. It was! Where to begin? El Salvador adopted bitcoin as a national currency. You can’t get any dumber than that—or maybe you can. How about Bitcoin Volcano bonds? Or Elon Musk sending the bitcoin price falling when he tweeted a broken heart emoji?
Several of us also predicted bitcoin would collapse in value. Bitcoin has not suffered a stupendous crash yet, but the conditions are ripe for a crash—loose regulatory oversight and a lack of real dollars in the system. It’s just taking a little longer than we thought.
Bitcoin started 2021 at $32,000. It went on to set a new record high of $69,000 in November 2021. It’s now below $50,000—already a 30% drop in price. The higher it goes, the farther it has to fall. The question is not if crypto will plunge, but when.
Nicholas Weaver, a researcher at the International Computer Science Institute in Berkeley, who has been following Bitcoin since 2012, told me he expected the crypto markets to collapse six months ago.
“I’m surprised the [bitcoin] mining hasn’t collapsed yet, but I think it’s being propped up by mining companies HODLing and going into debt on power bills.” Bitcoin miners mint 900 new bitcoins per day and they have to sell those for cash to pay their monstrous electricity bills.
Weaver added: “I think the huge hype with Crypto.com, Robinhood, and the others IS drawing in some retail suckers, just not enough.”
Robinhood, the popular stock trading app, starting shifting into crypto in 2020. In an attempt to become a household name, Singapore crypto exchange Crypto.com, plastered its name on L.A.’s Staples Center. The media attention helps lure more real dollars into the crypto ecosystem.
Carol Alexander, professor of finance at Sussex University, told CNBC, that she expects bitcoin to collapse to as low as $10,000 in 2022. As far as she’s concerned bitcoin “has no fundamental value.” It’s not a real investment, just a “toy.”
To keep the game going a little bit longer, coiners will need to come up with a new way to lure dumb money into the crypto markets. How will they do this in 2022?
In 2017, initial coin offerings were the answer. In 2021, NFTs lured in the dumb money. Fellow bitcoin hater David Gerard predicts “there will be some attempt to invent a new form of crypto magic bean that’s more blitheringly stupid than NFTs, but I’m at a loss as to what it could be.”
Jorge Stolfi, a computer science professor at the State University of Campinas in Brazil, is reluctant to make bitcoin price predictions but he thinks change is definitely in the air. “The tide however has clearly turned. I am feeling it more now than ever. If 2022 doesn’t see a massive crash plus regulations, enforcement, etc then I will be really shocked,” he said in a private chat.
Stolfi pointed out that critics are less restrained now. In the past, they would tell you to “be careful.” Now they are outright calling bitcoin a Ponzi. Headlines tell the story. A recent opinion piece in the FT carried the headline: “Why bitcoin is worse than a Madoff-style Ponzi scheme.” On CNBC: “‘Black Swan’ author calls bitcoin a ‘gimmick’ and a ‘game,’ says it resembles a Ponzi scheme.” And a June 2021 headline in Vice read: “President of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Called DOGE a Ponzi Scheme.”
Stablecoins spun completely out of control in 2021. The supply grew 388%, driven by decentralized finance (DeFi) and derivative trading, according to research by The Block.
In early 2021, there were 21 billion tethers sloshing around in the crypto markets. Twelve months later, that number quadrupled to 78 billion. Tether is now shamelessly moving tethers in 1 billion and 2 billion batches. And where are Tether’s two remaining principles—CEO Jean-Louis van der Velde and CFO Giancarlo Devasini? Nowhere to be seen is where. They disappeared from the public eye long ago. I suspect we won’t see them again until the U.S. DOJ catches up to them.
Growth in the second most popular stablecoin was even more staggering in 2021. Circle’s USDC went from 4 billion to 42 billion. In July 2021, Circle shocked everyone when it announced plans to go public via a SPAC, thereby sidestepping the financial scrutiny of an IPO.
We haven’t heard any news on that SPAC since, even though the merger was supposed to close in Q4 2021. My guess is the heat is excessive.
Both Tether and Circle claim that their stablecoins are fully backed by reserves, but the big question is — how carefully are these reserves audited? Some of those reserve assets, like commercial paper, are riskier to convert to cash. Regulators are worried that stablecoins could fuel digital-era “bank runs” if a large number of investors rush to redeem them.
The Biden administration said in 2021 that it wants to regulate stablecoin issuers the same way as banks. SEC Commission Chairman Gary Gensler likened stablecoins to “poker chips at the casino.”
I predict stablecoin companies will continue to feel the pressure from regulators in 2022, and eventually, it will become impossible for them to stay in business. They are becoming too big of a risk.
NFTs — another regulatory loophole to be closed
In 2021, NFTs became dinner table talk after a Beeple piece sold for $69.3 million in crypto at a Christie’s auction. It turned out, the person behind the sale was the former operator of a shady cryptocurrency exchange in Canada, who partnered with Beeple on plans to fractionalize the NFT with a B20 token. He actually gave Beeple 2% of the B20 supply and kept 60% for himself.
Out of seemingly nowhere, NFTs have now become a $40 billion market.
The initial coin offering market was huge in 2017, until regulators gave fair warning that most ICO tokens were unregistered securities. I predict the regulatory noose will tighten on the NFT market as well. Regulators are already warning that fractionalized NFTs resemble illegal securities.
If NFT marketplaces are deemed art dealers, they could fall under the bank secrecy act, which means platforms will have to ID their customers and submit suspicious activity reports to the government.
In short, 2022 will be a year that regulations put the stranglehold on crypto. Until then, expect more comedy gold and corruption in El Salvador, where President Nayib Bukele is now trading bitcoin on his phone and tweeting about it.
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